Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-11-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 63.6%

CBJ: 36.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.73

CBJ: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	BUF	CBJ
Season SV%	0.903	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	24	2	92.3%	3.21	3	1.21
CBJ	Jet Greaves	37	32	5	86.5%	4.30	4	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-06	BUF 5 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-10-01	CBJ 6 - 3 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	CBJ
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	1	1.42
1	CBJ	12	1	0.83
2	BUF	24	3	2.27
2	CBJ	16	0	0.95
3	BUF	7	0	0.60
3	CBJ	15	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown