Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-11-06 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 70.4%

ANA: 29.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.56

ANA: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	CGY	ANA
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	24	5	82.8%	3.64	3	-1.36
ANA	Lukas Dostal	21	18	3	85.7%	2.24	1	-0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-06	CGY 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-10-13	ANA 2 - 4 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-10-10	CGY 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	1	1.28
1	ANA	11	1	0.90
2	CGY	8	0	0.57
2	ANA	18	0	1.10
3	CGY	10	0	0.39
3	ANA	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown