Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-11-17 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals @ 7:30 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 60.1%
WSH: 39.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.69
WSH: 3.07
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 8-3-1 | 0.887 SV% | 2.75 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 5-4-0 | 0.887 SV% | 3.22 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.872 | 0.866 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.952 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • TBL at home vs WSH: 6-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | TBL 3 - 1 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-11-17 at 7:30 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
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