Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-11-23 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:30 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 51.0%
TOR: 49.0%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.48
TOR: 3.62
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
TOR
Anthony Stolarz - 10-10-3 | 0.893 SV% | 3.28 GAA
| Stat | NYI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.905 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | — |
| GAA | 2.55 | 3.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NYI 5 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-03-17 | TOR 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-11-23 at 7:30 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.