Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2026-12-05 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 48.3%
TBL: 51.7%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.27
TBL: 3.38
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Samuel Ersson - 2-3-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.33 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 8-3-1 | 0.887 SV% | 2.75 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.880 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.872 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.33 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 7-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-12-05 at 7:00 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.
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