Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-12-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EST

Win Probability

TOR: 45.9%

TBL: 54.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

TBL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky - 3-6-2 | 0.889 SV% | 3.27 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 8-3-1 | 0.887 SV% | 2.75 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

This game is scheduled for 2026-12-19 at 7:00 PM EST.

Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.