New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction (Dec 11, 2025)
New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Dec 11, 2025
Detailed NHL game prediction for New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.
Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Expected goals: New Jersey Devils 3.11 — Tampa Bay Lightning 3.84 • Median total: 6.4
Advanced matchup context
Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.
| Per-team for minus against | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Net attempts / 60 | +1.84 | +4.50 |
| Score-adjusted net attempts / 60 | +1.29 | +5.88 |
| Net xG / 60 | -0.11 | +0.71 |
| Score-adjusted net xG / 60 | -0.13 | +0.77 |
NJD: last 30 eligible games · 1433 verified minutes · through 2025-12-06
TBL: last 30 eligible games · 1375 verified minutes · through 2025-12-09
Reading the form numbers
Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.
Where the attempts may come from
| Shot category | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | 9.8% | 11.0% |
| Close range | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| Long range | 24.1% | 24.6% |
| Other | 48.7% | 45.4% |
Profiles frozen 2025-12-01; observations through 2025-11-30. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.
These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.
After the game
Completed-game diagnostic · positive values favor NJD.
42.1 verified 5v5 minutes; 88% attempt retention. These estimates use the game's observed score-state time and are separate from the pregame view.
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.