Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction (Feb 25, 2026)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Feb 25, 2026

Detailed NHL game prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term edges on Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Pregame win probability: Tampa Bay Lightning 59.9% • Toronto Maple Leafs 40.1%

Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning 3.95 — Toronto Maple Leafs 3.42 • Median total: 7.0