Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR
Eastern
Season Record:
3-3-1
(7 pts, 50.0%)
Last 5 games:
30% win rate
Points Percentage
50.0%
7 pts in 7 games
Overtime Record
1-1
OT/SO: 1 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.21
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
4.09
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.76
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
+1.7
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
4
2W – 2L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
37.5%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.8%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
5.3%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
42.4/gm · p56
Slot Location style
34.4% · p94
Finishing variance
1.04 G/xG · p66
Shot Quality
0.077 xG/sh · p56
Defense
Shot Suppression
44.2/gm · p28
Slot Defense
29.4% allowed · p50
Goaltending variance
0.72 GA/xGA · p81
Quality Allowed
0.088 xG/sh · p6
Regression Watch
Toronto Maple Leafs is finishing 7% above expected (1.07). This often regresses downward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 7 | 36 | 3.5 | 5 |
| William Nylander | 7 | 37 | 3.4 | 5 |
| John Tavares | 6 | 24 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 6 | 27 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jack Roslovic | 7 | 29 | 2.2 | 3 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | UTA | 28.8% | 2.92 | 3.75 | 3.14 | 2.59 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | COL | 40.2% | 3.40 | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.42 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | VGK | 42.7% | 4.13 | 3.11 | 3.79 | 6.47 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | NSH | 62.8% | 4.44 | 3.67 | 4.04 | 3.96 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | OTT | 57.1% | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.34 | 4.73 | L |
| 2026-09-30 | NYI | 61.2% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 2.87 | 2.73 | W |
| 2026-09-29 | MTL | 46.1% | 2.88 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 3.70 | L |
| 2026-04-15 | OTT | 26.6% | 1.67 | 3.57 | - | - | L |
| 2026-04-13 | DAL | 45.5% | 2.96 | 3.69 | - | - | L |
| 2026-04-11 | FLA | 56.3% | 2.83 | 3.10 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | BUF | 36.1% | 2.80 | 3.61 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYI | 50.0% | 3.13 | 3.46 |
| 2026-10-19 | 7:30 PM EDT | SJS | 58.3% | 3.35 | 2.89 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | CBJ | 45.5% | 3.42 | 3.75 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYR | 51.3% | 2.76 | 3.33 |
| 2026-10-24 | 5:00 PM MDT | EDM | 48.6% | 4.34 | 3.28 |
| 2026-10-26 | 6:30 PM MDT | CGY | 38.7% | 3.18 | 3.55 |
| 2026-10-28 | 7:00 PM PDT | SEA | 47.4% | 3.18 | 3.22 |