Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR
Eastern
Season Record:
32-36-14
(78 pts, 47.6%)
Last 5 games:
20% win rate
Points Percentage
47.6%
78 pts in 82 games
Overtime Record
9-14
OT/SO: 9 wins, 14 losses
Recent Expected Goals
2.72
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.71
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.65
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
+5.6
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
35
29W – 6L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
1
0W – 1L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
37.5%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.8%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
5.3%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
39.7/gm · p22
Slot Location style
29.8% · p75
Finishing variance
1.04 G/xG · p88
Shot Quality
0.076 xG/sh · p59
Defense
Shot Suppression
48.9/gm · p3
Slot Defense
28.2% allowed · p62
Goaltending variance
1.01 GA/xGA · p38
Quality Allowed
0.075 xG/sh · p53
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 81 | 304 | 35.2 | 31 |
| Auston Matthews | 60 | 334 | 32.5 | 29 |
| Matthew Knies | 69 | 194 | 23.8 | 23 |
| William Nylander | 63 | 243 | 23.0 | 32 |
| Bobby McMann | 55 | 180 | 14.6 | 19 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | OTT | 20.1% | 1.57 | 4.01 | 1.59 | 5.13 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | DAL | 40.5% | 3.01 | 3.61 | 2.40 | 4.66 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | FLA | 53.0% | 2.99 | 3.19 | 2.80 | 4.31 | L |
| 2026-04-09 | NYI | 25.9% | 2.49 | 4.50 | 2.30 | 6.78 | L |
| 2026-04-08 | WSH | 43.4% | 2.96 | 3.11 | 2.19 | 3.38 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | LAK | 35.0% | 2.83 | 4.17 | 2.37 | 4.59 | L |
| 2026-04-02 | SJS | 39.0% | 3.03 | 3.70 | 2.47 | 2.83 | L |
| 2026-03-30 | ANA | 31.7% | 2.71 | 4.02 | 4.29 | 4.21 | W |
| 2026-03-28 | STL | 36.2% | 2.67 | 3.47 | 1.75 | 3.56 | L |
| 2026-03-25 | NYR | 43.6% | 2.97 | 2.75 | 1.55 | 3.33 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7:00 PM EDT | OTT | 38.9% | 1.37 | 4.66 |
| 2026-10-06 | 7:00 PM EDT | NSH | 42.9% | 1.95 | 3.14 |
| 2026-10-08 | 7:00 PM PDT | VGK | 47.2% | 3.42 | 3.30 |
| 2026-10-10 | 5:00 PM MDT | COL | 52.4% | 3.57 | 2.91 |
| 2026-10-13 | 7:00 PM MDT | UTA | 48.1% | 3.76 | 2.43 |
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | BUF | 41.1% | 1.94 | 3.23 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYI | 41.5% | 1.88 | 2.78 |
| 2026-10-19 | 7:30 PM EDT | SJS | 42.2% | 2.33 | 4.11 |