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2026-27 Preseason

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction (Apr 09, 2025)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Apr 09, 2025

Model last updated: Aug 26, 2026 09:31 AM PDT; data source: schedule_predictions.csv

Detailed NHL game prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term edges on Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Tampa Bay Lightning 72.7% Toronto Maple Leafs 27.3%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning 4.44 — Toronto Maple Leafs 2.95 • Median total: 5.8

Expected Goals Comparison

Tampa Bay Lightning
3.56
xG/game (Season)
Toronto Maple Leafs
3.05
xG/game (Season)
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