Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-10-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 48.6%

SEA: 51.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.94

SEA: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

R. Lehner

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	31	28	3	90.3%	2.68	2	-0.32
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	30	26	4	86.7%	3.33	1	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs SEA: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK
2025-04-10	VGK 2 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.82
1	SEA	15	0	0.56
2	VGK	24	0	1.56
2	SEA	19	1	1.43
3	VGK	12	1	0.96
3	SEA	10	1	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5