New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-10-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 48.6%

NYR: 51.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.93

NYR: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

V. Vanecek

NYR

A. Georgiev

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	24	23	1	95.8%	2.26	0	1.26
NYR	A. Georgiev	27	22	5	81.5%	2.44	2	-2.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • WSH at home vs NYR: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	0.99
1	NYR	15	0	0.99
2	WSH	21	0	0.98
2	NYR	9	0	0.28
3	WSH	7	1	0.46
3	NYR	14	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5