Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-10-13 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 48.6%

CHI: 51.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.95

CHI: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

D. Kuemper

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	34	32	2	94.1%	2.21	1	0.21
CHI	M. Fleury	36	32	4	88.9%	3.66	2	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • COL at home vs CHI: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	22	0	1.36
1	CHI	11	0	0.41
2	COL	14	1	1.20
2	CHI	16	0	0.94
3	COL	13	1	1.10
3	CHI	17	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5