Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2021-10-13 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 48.6%

VAN: 51.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.95

VAN: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

M. Smith

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	41	38	3	92.7%	4.42	1	1.42
VAN	Thatcher Demko	38	34	4	89.5%	6.51	5	2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs VAN: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	EDM 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	EDM
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM
2025-10-11	EDM 3 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	2	1.99
1	VAN	10	0	1.26
2	EDM	13	1	1.45
2	VAN	14	0	0.90
3	EDM	11	0	0.70
3	VAN	17	0	0.63
4	EDM	3	0	0.35
4	VAN	3	0	0.41
5	EDM	5	2	2.02
5	VAN	5	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5