Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-10-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BUF: 65.6%

MTL: 34.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.28

MTL: 4.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

C. Anderson

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	31	30	1	96.8%	1.90	0	0.90
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	31	5	86.1%	2.92	2	-2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	0.57
1	MTL	12	0	0.46
2	BUF	18	2	1.43
2	MTL	15	0	0.67
3	BUF	16	0	0.92
3	MTL	11	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 4.3