Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-10-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 49.9%

TOR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.93

TOR: 4.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 51%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	48	46	2	95.8%	5.61	3	3.61
TOR	P. Mrazek	36	33	3	91.7%	5.22	1	2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	1.27
1	TOR	22	2	2.19
2	OTT	24	0	2.74
2	TOR	11	1	0.78
3	OTT	12	0	1.21
3	TOR	30	0	2.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 4.0