Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-10-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 60.4%

TBL: 39.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.47

TBL: 3.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	48	41	7	85.4%	4.75	1	-2.25
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	20	6	76.9%	3.74	2	-2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DET at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	1	1.35
1	TBL	18	0	1.23
2	DET	16	0	1.74
2	TBL	20	0	1.56
3	DET	8	1	0.65
3	TBL	15	1	1.47
4	DET	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	4	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 3.8