Dallas Stars at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-10-14 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

NYR: 44.1%

DAL: 55.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.13

DAL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	2.90	0	-0.10
DAL	B. Holtby	33	31	2	93.9%	3.45	0	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	NYR
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	8	0.39
1	DAL	15	1.39
2	NYR	27	1.82
2	DAL	9	0.84
3	NYR	16	1.09
3	DAL	11	0.44
4	NYR	1	0.15
4	DAL	2	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.1 - 2.8