Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 65.7%

OTT: 34.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

OTT: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 8.6

Over 5.5: 92%

Over 6.5: 79%

TOR

J. Campbell

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	21	20	1	95.2%	2.01	0	1.01
OTT	Anton Forsberg	29	26	3	89.7%	2.76	1	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.77
1	OTT	12	0	0.57
2	TOR	22	0	1.27
2	OTT	12	0	0.76
3	TOR	10	1	0.72
3	OTT	12	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.3