Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 58.8%

TBL: 41.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.91

TBL: 5.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

V. Vanecek

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	24	22	2	91.7%	2.43	1	0.43
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	32	1	97.0%	2.10	0	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs TBL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.41
1	TBL	11	0	0.63
2	WSH	10	0	0.50
2	TBL	15	1	1.34
3	WSH	14	0	0.80
3	TBL	11	0	0.29
4	WSH	6	0	0.39
4	TBL	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 8.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.9 - 5.0