St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 68.0%

STL: 32.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.27

STL: 3.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

COL

D. Kuemper

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	28	23	5	82.1%	3.08	1	-1.92
STL	Jordan Binnington	32	29	3	90.6%	3.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.35
1	STL	13	0	0.78
2	COL	24	0	1.61
2	STL	6	0	0.39
3	COL	15	0	1.22
3	STL	17	1	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.3 - 3.9