New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-10-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.4%

NYR: 38.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

NYR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

J. Campbell

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	23	21	2	91.3%	2.23	1	0.23
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	41	40	1	97.6%	4.10	0	3.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	0	0.98
1	NYR	11	0	0.61
2	TOR	22	0	1.72
2	NYR	8	0	0.43
3	TOR	13	0	0.98
3	NYR	15	1	0.80
4	TOR	5	0	0.42
4	NYR	4	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0