Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-10-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 67.2%

ANA: 32.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.18

ANA: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

J. Markstrom

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	27	24	3	88.9%	1.96	0	-1.04
ANA	John Gibson	43	41	2	95.3%	4.07	1	2.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	0	1.51
1	ANA	12	0	0.45
2	CGY	20	0	1.04
2	ANA	16	0	0.75
3	CGY	16	1	1.44
3	ANA	8	0	0.38
4	CGY	1	0	0.08
4	ANA	5	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.4