San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2021-10-19 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 0 - 5 San Jose Sharks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 37.6%
SJS: 62.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.35
SJS: 4.23
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
J. Allen
SJS
A. Hill
| Stat | MTL | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | J. Allen | 25 | 20 | 5 | 80.0% | 1.74 | 0 | -3.26 |
| SJS | A. Hill | 21 | 21 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.38 | 0 | 1.38 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | MTL 2 - 4 SJS | SJS | MTL |
| 2026-03-03 | SJS 7 - 5 MTL | SJS | MTL |
| 2025-02-27 | MTL 4 - 3 SJS | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-02-04 | SJS 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-01-11 | MTL 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | MTL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTL | 4 | 0 | 0.08 |
| 1 | SJS | 15 | 0 | 0.92 |
| 2 | MTL | 17 | 0 | 0.61 |
| 2 | SJS | 5 | 0 | 0.21 |
| 3 | MTL | 14 | 0 | 0.70 |
| 3 | SJS | 12 | 0 | 0.61 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 0 - 5 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 2.3 - 4.2
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