Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-10-19 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (74% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 25.8%

COL: 74.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.53

COL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 38%

WSH

I. Samsonov

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	27	24	3	88.9%	2.69	4	-0.31
COL	D. Kuemper	40	34	6	85.0%	5.38	5	-0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	25	1	1.91
1	COL	9	1	0.58
2	WSH	11	1	0.59
2	COL	9	2	1.13
3	WSH	18	3	2.89
3	COL	17	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2