St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-10-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

VGK: 45.0%

STL: 55.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.68

STL: 4.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

R. Lehner

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	38	35	3	92.1%	4.69	1	1.69
STL	Jordan Binnington	43	42	1	97.7%	3.34	2	2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs STL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	21	1	1.77
1	STL	20	0	1.97
2	VGK	17	1	1.05
2	STL	16	0	1.21
3	VGK	14	0	0.51
3	STL	11	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.7 - 4.1