San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-10-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.0%

SJS: 46.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.10

SJS: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

OTT

M. Murray

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	24	22	2	91.7%	2.11	2	0.11
SJS	J. Reimer	31	30	1	96.8%	3.39	1	2.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	1.11
1	SJS	12	1	0.83
2	OTT	18	0	1.08
2	SJS	14	0	0.88
3	OTT	21	1	1.20
3	SJS	6	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9