Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2021-10-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 64.2%

WSH: 35.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.77

WSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

NJD

S. Wedgewood

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	S. Wedgewood	27	23	4	85.2%	3.03	1	-0.97
WSH	V. Vanecek	26	25	1	96.2%	2.50	0	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 26% • NJD at home vs WSH: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	9	0	0.36
1	WSH	17	0	1.32
2	NJD	12	0	1.17
2	WSH	12	1	0.88
3	NJD	15	0	0.97
3	WSH	13	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0