San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-10-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (79% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 78.7%

SJS: 21.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.97

SJS: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

M. Hutchinson

SJS

A. Hill

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	M. Hutchinson	31	26	5	83.9%	3.24	2	-1.76
SJS	A. Hill	33	30	3	90.9%	4.38	2	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TOR at home vs SJS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	1.26
1	SJS	12	0	0.40
2	TOR	19	2	1.78
2	SJS	17	0	1.04
3	TOR	16	0	1.34
3	SJS	11	2	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 78.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.0 - 2.5