Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

MTL: 56.1%

DET: 43.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.20

DET: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

MTL

J. Allen

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	27	26	1	96.3%	2.02	0	1.02
DET	T. Greiss	24	18	6	75.0%	3.50	2	-2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs DET: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.68
1	DET	8	0	0.60
2	MTL	19	1	1.66
2	DET	18	0	0.93
3	MTL	7	1	1.16
3	DET	10	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9