New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 73.1%

NYR: 26.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.05

NYR: 4.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

M. Murray

NYR

A. Georgiev

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	26	23	3	88.5%	1.93	0	-1.07
NYR	A. Georgiev	28	26	2	92.9%	2.03	0	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	OTT	14	0.87
1	NYR	10	0.32
2	OTT	15	0.77
2	NYR	9	0.52
3	OTT	10	0.39
3	NYR	18	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 4.7