Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 59.8%

CGY: 40.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.60

CGY: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

V. Vanecek

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	27	23	4	85.2%	2.34	2	-1.66
CGY	Dan Vladar	25	22	3	88.0%	2.83	2	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	1.02
1	CGY	14	1	0.93
2	WSH	13	1	1.36
2	CGY	10	0	0.51
3	WSH	8	0	0.32
3	CGY	13	0	0.54
4	WSH	3	0	0.14
4	CGY	2	1	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1