Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions
2021-10-24 • United Center
Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CHI: 63.0%
DET: 37.0%
Expected Goals
CHI: 3.59
DET: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CHI
M. Fleury
DET
A. Nedeljkovic
| Stat | CHI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | M. Fleury | 37 | 31 | 6 | 83.8% | 3.00 | 1 | -3.00 |
| DET | A. Nedeljkovic | 35 | 32 | 3 | 91.4% | 4.65 | 6 | 1.65 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs DET: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | CHI 0 - 4 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-11-09 | DET 1 - 5 CHI | CHI | DET |
| 2025-01-10 | DET 5 - 3 CHI | DET | DET |
| 2024-11-06 | CHI 1 - 4 DET | DET | CHI |
| 2024-02-25 | CHI 2 - 3 DET | DET | CHI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 16 | 0 | 0.73 |
| 1 | DET | 11 | 0 | 0.82 |
| 2 | CHI | 11 | 2 | 1.11 |
| 2 | DET | 19 | 0 | 1.15 |
| 3 | CHI | 22 | 4 | 2.82 |
| 3 | DET | 12 | 1 | 1.03 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.6 - 3.4
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.