New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-10-24 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 62.2%

NYI: 37.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.15

NYI: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 54%

VGK

R. Lehner

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	26	24	2	92.3%	3.97	3	1.97
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	42	42	0	100.0%	4.01	4	4.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	1	1.15
1	NYI	18	1	1.58
2	VGK	22	1	1.59
2	NYI	7	0	0.26
3	VGK	18	2	1.27
3	NYI	15	2	2.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1