Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-10-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 7 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 59.6%

WSH: 40.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.24

WSH: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	31	24	7	77.4%	2.52	0	-4.48
WSH	I. Samsonov	37	32	5	86.5%	3.69	2	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	1.08
1	WSH	21	0	0.84
2	OTT	16	0	1.50
2	WSH	11	0	0.99
3	OTT	13	2	1.10
3	WSH	9	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 7 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0