Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2021-10-25 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

CBJ: 59.4%

DAL: 40.6%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.13

DAL: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	32	31	1	96.9%	2.72	0	1.72
DAL	B. Holtby	26	22	4	84.6%	3.63	4	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CBJ at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	9	0	0.53
1	DAL	14	0	0.63
2	CBJ	16	2	1.40
2	DAL	14	0	0.79
3	CBJ	14	2	1.71
3	DAL	18	0	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0