Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2021-10-26 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 73.1%

CGY: 26.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.35

CGY: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Nico Daws	29	24	5	82.8%	3.47	2	-1.53
CGY	Dan Vladar	30	27	3	90.0%	2.31	2	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NJD at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	NJD 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2026-01-19	CGY 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	CGY
2025-03-20	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2024-11-01	CGY 3 - 0 NJD	CGY	NJD
2024-02-08	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	6	0	0.17
1	CGY	17	0	1.18
2	NJD	11	0	0.53
2	CGY	17	1	1.03
3	NJD	23	2	1.61
3	CGY	8	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8