Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-10-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

COL: 47.1%

VGK: 52.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.00

VGK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

COL

D. Kuemper

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	29	26	3	89.7%	3.15	2	0.15
VGK	R. Lehner	27	26	1	96.3%	2.56	0	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	1.01
1	VGK	12	0	0.75
2	COL	11	0	0.76
2	VGK	15	1	0.99
3	COL	12	0	0.79
3	VGK	12	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0