Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2021-10-27 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

CHI: 41.6%

TOR: 58.4%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.57

TOR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

CHI

K. Lankinen

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	K. Lankinen	40	37	3	92.5%	2.79	0	-0.21
TOR	J. Campbell	29	27	2	93.1%	3.01	1	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CHI at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	0	0.94
1	TOR	16	0	0.61
2	CHI	12	0	0.43
2	TOR	14	0	0.75
3	CHI	9	1	1.38
3	TOR	21	0	1.24
4	CHI	2	0	0.26
4	TOR	3	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.6 - 3.0