Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-10-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 64.1%

VGK: 35.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.25

VGK: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

A. Khudobin

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	A. Khudobin	21	18	3	85.7%	1.55	0	-1.45
VGK	L. Brossoit	34	32	2	94.1%	3.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	23	0	1.34
1	VGK	5	0	0.19
2	DAL	10	0	0.69
2	VGK	12	0	0.50
3	DAL	15	1	1.31
3	VGK	11	0	0.69
4	DAL	1	0	0.05
4	VGK	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8