Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-10-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 55.3%

CGY: 44.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.25

CGY: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

C. DeSmith

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	35	31	4	88.6%	3.13	1	-0.87
CGY	J. Markstrom	45	45	0	100.0%	3.54	0	3.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	24	0	1.68
1	CGY	15	0	0.69
2	PIT	20	0	0.92
2	CGY	15	0	1.09
3	PIT	18	0	0.93
3	CGY	16	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1