Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2021-10-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 60.9%

COL: 39.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.81

COL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	42	38	4	90.5%	3.07	0	-0.93
COL	D. Kuemper	18	15	3	83.3%	1.36	0	-1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • STL at home vs COL: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	STL	7	0.34
1	COL	17	1.28
2	STL	9	0.68
2	COL	19	1.17
3	STL	8	0.34
3	COL	14	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7