Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.9%

WSH: 52.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.00

WSH: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	31	2	93.9%	3.14	1	1.14
WSH	V. Vanecek	26	23	3	88.5%	3.16	0	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	0	0.71
1	WSH	12	1	1.00
2	TBL	15	0	1.39
2	WSH	14	0	1.13
3	TBL	7	0	1.05
3	WSH	17	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1