Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2021-11-01 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 49.8%

OTT: 50.2%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.89

OTT: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

CHI

M. Fleury

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	M. Fleury	30	29	1	96.7%	2.82	0	1.82
OTT	M. Murray	31	26	5	83.9%	2.04	1	-2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	CHI
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	9	0	0.34
1	OTT	15	0	1.02
2	CHI	18	0	1.03
2	OTT	8	0	0.51
3	CHI	12	1	0.67
3	OTT	18	0	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5