Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2021-11-02 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 68.5%
VGK: 31.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.96
VGK: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
J. Campbell
VGK
R. Lehner
| Stat | TOR | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | J. Campbell | 26 | 26 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.74 | 0 | 1.74 |
| VGK | R. Lehner | 33 | 29 | 4 | 87.9% | 3.44 | 2 | -0.56 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VGK: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
| 2026-01-15 | VGK 6 - 5 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-05 | VGK 5 - 2 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3 - 0 VGK | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-02-27 | TOR 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOR | 15 | 1 | 1.59 |
| 1 | VGK | 5 | 0 | 0.08 |
| 2 | TOR | 19 | 0 | 1.15 |
| 2 | VGK | 12 | 0 | 0.87 |
| 3 | TOR | 9 | 1 | 0.70 |
| 3 | VGK | 16 | 0 | 0.80 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 68.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 4.0 - 2.8
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