Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2021-11-02 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 46.5%

DAL: 53.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.11

DAL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	29	25	4	86.2%	3.79	2	-0.21
DAL	B. Holtby	38	33	5	86.8%	4.66	3	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • WPG at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	11	0	0.84
1	DAL	11	0	0.69
2	WPG	22	1	1.08
2	DAL	11	0	0.51
3	WPG	9	0	0.44
3	DAL	14	1	1.60
4	WPG	8	0	0.75
4	DAL	1	0	0.07
5	WPG	3	2	1.55
5	DAL	3	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2