Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 55.0%

TBL: 45.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

TBL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

TOR

J. Campbell

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	25	24	1	96.0%	3.17	1	2.17
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	32	2	94.1%	4.04	2	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	1.08
1	TBL	17	0	1.20
2	TOR	17	2	1.43
2	TBL	11	0	0.72
3	TOR	9	0	0.70
3	TBL	12	1	1.25
4	TOR	6	0	0.83
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0