Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 56.4%

VGK: 43.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.94

VGK: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	39	34	5	87.2%	3.61	1	-1.39
VGK	R. Lehner	39	38	1	97.4%	3.31	2	2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	2	1.84
1	VGK	18	0	0.73
2	OTT	16	0	0.82
2	VGK	20	0	1.18
3	OTT	14	0	0.66
3	VGK	15	1	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0