Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 65.0%

PHI: 35.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.75

PHI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	38	36	2	94.7%	3.94	3	1.94
PHI	C. Hart	36	33	3	91.7%	3.87	2	0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	1	1.22
1	PHI	20	0	1.29
2	PIT	20	1	1.98
2	PHI	15	1	1.21
3	PIT	13	0	0.48
3	PHI	13	1	1.01
4	PIT	2	0	0.21
4	PHI	2	1	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0