Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 62.7%

DAL: 37.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.58

DAL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

A. Khudobin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	24	4	85.7%	2.45	1	-1.55
DAL	A. Khudobin	33	30	3	90.9%	2.87	1	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.63
1	DAL	16	1	1.31
2	CGY	17	1	1.39
2	DAL	8	0	0.46
3	CGY	11	0	0.62
3	DAL	11	0	0.57
4	CGY	2	0	0.22
4	DAL	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 4.6 - 2.9